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Our civilization has unwittingly damaged the biosphere. But it is well within our scientific and economic capabilities to heal nature and to live alongside it.
A civilization more deeply integrated and harmonious with nature (courtesy MidJourney)
The urgency to act boldly to reverse this damage hinges on avoiding various ‘tipping points’ that cause runaway deterioration of living systems and permanently alters the course of life on Earth (including organized human society).
It is encouraging to witness the rapid deployment of renewable energy worldwide, the swift adoption of electric cars, and the gradual reinvention of heavy industry towards low-carbon operations. The rate of adoption must accelerate until the economics of preserving the legacy systems become unviable.
Even with decarbonizing these core industries, we will still need to extract at least 40 gigatons of excess CO2 from the atmosphere by 2050 to remain in a safe average temperature range - generally considered to be a < 1.5C increase in temperature. And although global warming is of paramount concern, it is by no means the only one.
Of the approx 6 trillion trees that existed at the dawn of human civilization, more than half have been destroyed since, releasing their carbon in the process.
Yet forests did and do far more than hold carbon - they stabilize the local weather and water cycles, and host the biodiversity that’s essential to food systems. These other losses need to be redressed too.
A natural solution to address multiple risk dimensions:
Forests were fundamental to the creation of the biosphere as we know it. Helping them recover at a grand scale is fundamental to keeping nature safe. Conversely, if forests go, so do we.
Photosynthesis produced virtually all the oxygen in the atmosphere (initially via bacteria, then via plants). It is such an efficient process that a single planted tree (cost ~$2) can draw down between 1-2 tons of CO2 during its growth phase. So as a proven carbon-sequestration system, no other ‘technology’ today comes close.
Yet, planting millions of trees alone won’t do the job: we need to restore biodiverse natural forests and peatlands that host diverse and cooperating communities of plants and animals. By doing so, we not only create an optimal and durable carbon sink for excess atmospheric carbon, we also gain the other essential benefits: stability of soil, water and weather systems, and diversity of animal life.
Equally, we need to ‘throw the kitchen sink’ at the de-carbonisation challenge. So, while nature-based solutions have tremendous advantages, any approach (e.g. Direct Air Capture, olivine sand, etc) that has a chance of removing CO2 from the atmosphere permanently (net of energy and risks required to operate) should be embraced in parallel. And of course, our governments must find ways to slow and eventually stop entirely the destruction of precious old-growth forests in areas such as the Amazon, Borneo and Central Africa.
Bold objectives:
Over the next decade, we need to restore ~1 billion hectares of such natural landscapes on degraded land globally. This is approximately the size of continental US and implies the regrowth of ~1 trillion additional trees over the next 10 years.
In order to achieve this, we’ll need to plant or rewild the optimal mix of tree species for each biome (see image) necessary to grow quickly, attract biodiversity and ensure long-term resilience. We already know how to do this; we have just chosen to do other things instead. For perspective, the world currently manages 4 billion hectares of land for agriculture (including grazing).
Sounds bonkers but we do stuff like this all the time:
Planting 1 trillion trees (approx 1000 trees per hectare) may feel like an insurmountable and complex logistical challenge but it is one which society is very much capable of doing given the correct moral and economic motivations. So before throwing in the towel, we might consider that human civilization already operates at this echelon of logistical complexity:
Smartphone companies manufacture and distribute 1.5 billion smartphones each year around the globe and each smartphone normally contains 500-1000 individual components, meaning that more than 1 trillion components are precisely sourced, organized and integrated into distinct products each year by a handful of companies - and then delivered globally into the hands of users. That’s over 10 trillion components delivered over a decade.
Coca Cola alone produces and delivers 30 billion aluminium cans each year around the globe. That’s 300 billion cans delivered over a decade into the hands of individuals.
Sea freight companies ship 11 billion tons of cargo around the globe by container every year. That is more than 100 billion tons over a decade.